The Pool of Argument Topics (Part I)

Argument 1

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

Argument 2

The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and house painting."
下述文字摘自Deerhaven Acres房屋业主委员会致Deerhaven Acres所有房屋业主的一封信函。
  “7年前,附近的Brookville社区的业主们采取了一系列限制性措施,规定了社区的院子应如何设计风景,住房的外部应漆上何种颜色。自那时候以来,Brookville平均房价已翻了三倍。为了使Deerhaven Acres的房地产升值,我们应该采用我们自己的一整套规范风景设计和房屋颜色的限制措施。”

Argument 3

The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.
"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."

Argument 4

The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

Argument 5

The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.
"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."

Argument 6

The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

Argument 7

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."
“在下一次市长选举中,Clearview的市民应该将票投给Ann Green而不应该投给Frank Brann(前者为“地球之友协会”的成员,后者则是Clearview市政委员会的成员),因为目前的市政委员会成员们并没有很好地保护我们的环境。举例来说,在过去的一年中,Clearview市的工厂数量增加了一倍,空气污染水平相应上升,当地的医院所治疗的患有呼吸疾病的病人也增加了25%。如果我们推选Ann Green的话,Clearview市的环境问题无疑会近刃而解。”

Argument 8

The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."
  “Mesa食品公司——一家快餐制造商,目前正在本国一个较小的地区营销其产品——具有强劲的增长潜力。Mesa公司去年的利润增长了20%,其最畅销的产品Diabolique Salsa比过去3年中的每一年都有增长。既然Omni公司有兴趣打入14至25岁这一最大数量的快餐消费年龄群体的市场,我们就应该收购Mesa食品公司,并特别致力于Diabolique Salsa产品在全国的营销。”

Argument 9

The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."
  “15年前,Omega大学贯彻了一项新的措施,鼓励学生对所有教授的教学效果进行评估。从那以后,Omega大学的教授们便开始为学生给出较高的成绩,Omega 大学的平均总评成绩因此上升了30%。那些潜在的雇主显然相信,Omega大学的成绩含有水份。这就说明了为什么Omega大学的毕业生没能像附近的Alpha大学的毕业生那样成功地找到工作。为了使其毕业生获得更好的工作,Omega大学应该马上停止学生对教授的教学评估。”

Argument 10

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."

Argument 11

The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.
"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."
下述文字摘自West Egg 镇市长的一份备忘录。

Argument 12

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."

Argument 13

The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.
"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book "Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."
  “有人最近向我们提供了一个机会,可购买版权来制作基于Peter Wood即将出版的儿童故事书《松鼠力量》的电视游戏。虽然购买版权耗费巨大,并将在短期内对我们公司构成经济压力,但有二个原因可证明购买这些版权无疑是一项极为明智的投资。首先,Wood的最后三部作品一直是畅销书,改编自他第一部作品的电影也有过极为不俗的盈利表现。其次,《松鼠力量》一书中广受欢迎的人物及故事情节将有助于我们节省制作我们自己电视游戏的时间,从而减少我们的开支。”

Argument 14

The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
下述文字摘自Green Thumb园艺中心(一家为一郊区小镇提供服务的小型商家)老板的一份备忘录。
  “有证据表明,消费者正在变得越来越感兴趣于种植其自己的蔬菜。上个月进行的一项全国性调查表明,许多消费者对超市出售的新鲜蔬菜的质量深表不满。在我们本地,名为《伟大的花园》的园艺杂志连续三个月在村庄报刊摊上被抢购一空。因此,在Green Thumb园艺中心,我们可望增加我们的利润,只要我们大幅度扩展我们在即将来到的这个春天为园丁们准备的蔬菜种籽的品种。”

Argument 15

The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
  “针对一份近期的调查,80%以上的受访者表示希望减少含有脂肪和胆固醇的食物的摄入量,而目前低脂肪产品在许多食品店供应充足。由于Old Dairy Industries公司目前所营销的许多食物产品富含脂肪和胆固醇,该公司的销售量可能会大幅度下降,利润肯定也将减少。我们因此建议持有Old Dairy Industries公司股份的投资者尽快出售其股份,亦建议其他投资者不要购买该公司的股票。”

Argument 16

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.
"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."

Argument 17

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ—which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks—has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."
下述文字摘自一封致Walnut Grove 镇报编辑的信函。
  “Walnut Grove镇政委员会已提议将业务从EZ垃圾处理公司(该公司已获得在过去10年中负责Walnut Grove镇垃圾收集服务的合约)转至ABC废物处理公司,因为EZ公司最近将其每月收费用2000美元提高到2500美元,而ABC公司的收费则仍然为2000美元。但镇政府委员会却犯了一个错误。我们应该继续使用EZ公司。EZ公司每周二次收集垃圾,而ABC公司只有每周一次。此外,EZ公司——该公司目前与ABC公司一样拥有20辆车的运输队——已定购了更多的车辆。最后,EZ公司所提供的服务非常出色——针对去年的一项全镇性调查,80%的受访者认定他们对EZ的表现‘满意’。”

Argument 18

The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."

Argument 19

The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.
"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."
下述文字摘自一个名为Double Rice 摇滚乐团经理的一封信函。
  “一年前,Double Rice乐队在全国各体育馆举办的音乐会门票平均要花24小时才能售完,如果真能售完的话。但本乐队在14至25岁年龄段的观众中受欢迎的程度在全国范围内正在急骤飚升,最近一次在Megalopolis市举办的音乐会,30,000张门票12分钟便被抢购一空。显而易见,Megalopolis的售票业绩之所以如此之好,一方面是因为本乐队著名度的提高,另一方面是由于 Ad Lib广告代理公司在Megalopolis市进行了声势浩大的广告宣传。因此,为了确保本乐队在Megalopolis市的成功能在全国各地重演,本乐队应该雇佣Ad Lib广告公司在全国范围内复制Megalopolis市的那种广告造势活动。”

Argument 20

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Argument 21

The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."

Argument 22

The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.
"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."

Argument 23

A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.

Argument 24

The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.
"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."
  “为了降低成本,我们应该关闭某些我们现有的小型装配厂,去建造一家大型中央工厂。 Grandview将是建造这家新工厂的理想厂址。首先,在所有我们考虑过的厂址中,Grandview拥有最多的成人人口,因此我们能够既迅速又容易地为我们的工厂组织到员工。其次,由于Grandview地区的工人平均工资低于其他地方的工资水平,我们就能将生产成本维持在一个较低的水平。最后,作为吸引我们去那里建厂的一个优惠条件,Grandview镇政府委员会已主动提出,允许我们头三年里的生产无需支付市政税收。”

Argument 25

The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

Argument 26

The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda.
"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."
  “在过去的5年中,Charles Schade先生一直是钢城高中的音乐主任,在那期间,钢城高中的校乐队曾在三次地方性乐队比赛中夺冠。此外,在过去的5年中,钢城高中音乐排练设备和乐器的质量也有明显的提高。由于有在钢城高中这样的一些成功事例,Saluda学校的董事会应该雇佣Schade先生来规划和指导整个Saluda学校体系中的普通音乐教学计划。”

Argument 27

The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a company that manufactures automobiles.
"It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that just moved into our state, is advertising job openings at salaries that are twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our employees have already left to work for Sparks. In order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to those Sparks pays its employees. Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in the future, because Sparks must staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state."

Argument 28

The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.
"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each school day."

Argument 29

when Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.
  当Ida McAllister 4年前竞选湖城市长的时候,她甚至没能赢得30%的选票。但从那里起,McAllister将她致力于环保事业的决心公诸于众。因此,她宣布她打算禁止机动车交通进入所有湖城公园,这不失为明智之举,并因此而表明她追循着Plainsville前市长Alecia Yu的榜样。在一小部分深表忧虑的公民的建议下,Yu市长曾在所有Plainsville市的公园禁止机动车交通,因而被誉为解决了Plainsville市的污染问题并提高了当地的生活质量。这项行动会对湖城的公民具有巨大的吸引力,他们中的大多数人都参加社区的回收利用计划。这确保了McAllister在其目前谋求成为湖城新市长的竞选中取得成功。

Argument 30

According to information recently reported in the Eliottown Gazette, the number of people who travel to Eliottown has increased significantly over the past several years. So far this year over 100,000 people have arrived on flights to Eliottown's airport, compared with only 80,000 last year and 40,000 the year before. Eliottown's train station has received more than 50,000 passengers this year, compared with less than 40,000 last year and 20,000 the year before. Clearly tourism in Eliottown has been increasing, thanks to the new Central Park and Museum of Modern Art that opened last year. Therefore, the funding for the park and museum should be increased significantly。

Argument 31

The following appeared in the editorial section of a newsmagazine.
"Some states are creating new laws that restrict the use of of handheld cell phones by drivers of automobiles. Such legislation, however, is sheer folly. Although some people with cell phones undoubtedly cause problems on the road, including serious accidents, the majority do not. Besides, problems are also caused by drivers who are distracted by any number of other activities, from listening to the radio to disciplining children. Since there is no need to pass legislation restricting these and other such activities, it follows that there is no need to restrict people's freedom to use a device that they find convenient—or helpful in emergencies."

Argument 32

Until recently, people in Hiparia did most of their shopping by driving to shopping malls. They are beginning, however, to do more of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the Internet. These purchases are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery service. For many purchases, Hiparians no longer need to drive to and from shopping malls; there will therefore be a resulting reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia."

Argument 33

The following report appeared in an archaeology journal.
"The discovery of distinctively shaped ceramic pots at various prehistoric sites scattered over a wide area has led archaeologists to ask how the pots were spread. Some believe the pot makers migrated to the various sites and carried the pots along with them; others believe the pots were spread by trade and their makers remained in one place. Now, analysis of the bones of prehistoric human skeletons can settle the debate: high levels of a certain metallic element contained in various foods are strongly associated with people who migrated to a new place after childhood. Many of the bones found near the pots at a few sites showed high levels of the metallic element. Therefore, it must be that the pots were spread by migration, not trade."

Argument 34

Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis。

Argument 35

The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.
"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."

Argument 36

The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."

Argument 37

"Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river—the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea"

Argument 38

The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
下述备忘录摘自West Meria公共健康委员会的时事通讯。
  “一种富有创新意义的治疗方法已引起了我们的注意,该方法有望大大减少我们学校和工作单位的旷工和旷课现象。一项研究显示,在附近鱼类消费非常高的East Meria地区,人们每年只有一、二次去看大夫,治疗感冒。显然,食用大量的鱼能预防感冒。既然人们最普遍地用感冒来作为旷课或旷工的原因,我们建议每日使用Ichthaid,一种从鱼肝油中提炼出来的营养补充物,用以作为预防感冒和减少旷工(课)行为的有效方法。”

Argument 39

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."

Argument 40

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.
"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."

Argument 41

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food-distribution company with food-storage warehouses in several cities.
"Recently we signed a contract with The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company to provide pest-control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-control services."

Argument 42

The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.
"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."

Argument 43

The following appeared as part of a business plan developed by the manager of the Rialto Theater.
"Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades, must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex."

Argument 44

The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books.
"Monarch Books should open a cafè in its store to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened a cafè. Monarch, which has been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer following because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Opening the cafè would clearly attract more customers. The cafè would require relatively little space. Space could be made for the cafè by discontinuing the children's book section, which will likely become less popular given that the last national census indicated a significant decline in the percent of the population who are under age ten."

Argument 45

The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

Argument 46

"Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly bears—often similar in color, but much larger—were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear"
  “尽管黑熊在加拿大东部省分Labrador甚为常见,但灰熊——颜色往往相似但体形远来得大——则被认为仅存在于西部诸省。尽管有一位19世纪的探险家描述说,他在Labrador省的丛林深处曾惊起一头灰熊并勉强死里逃生,但现代的科学家们绝没有找到灰熊曾在Labrador省生活过的任何物质证据。但最近对Innu民族 ——一个在Labrador省生活了数千年的民族——的语言和传说所作的研究表明,他们的语言含有这两种不同的熊的词汇,并且,他们的古代传说赋予这两种熊以各不相同的特征。因此,Labrador省过去可能曾有过灰熊,而那位探险家的描述可能很精确地确认了那种熊。”

Argument 47

"Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption"

Argument 48

The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."

Argument 49

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newsletter on health issues.
"For the past decade, most health experts have advised teenagers to avoid eating greasy foods in order to prevent acne and related skin conditions, but the number of teenagers who sought medical help for these skin problems has actually risen over the same period. In a recent study, teenagers who avoided greasy foods for a month reported approximately as many outbreaks of acne and related skin conditions as did those who ate an average of two servings of greasy food per day. Such data indicate that eating greasy foods is unlikely to be a cause of acne and related skin conditions. Therefore, health experts should no longer recommend that people avoid such foods."

Argument 50

From a draft textbook manuscript submitted to a publisher.
"As Earth was being formed out of the collision of space rocks, the heat from those collisions and from the increasing gravitational energy of the planet made the entire planet molten, even the surface. Any water present would have evaporated and gone off into space. As the planet approached its current size, however, its gravitation became strong enough to hold gases and water vapor around it as an atmosphere. Because comets are largely ice made up of frozen water and gases, a comet striking Earth then would have vaporized. The resulting water vapor would have been retained in the atmosphere, eventually falling as rain on the cooled and solidified surface of Earth. Therefore, the water in Earth's oceans must have originated from comets."
  “正当地球从空间岩石的碰撞中形成时,这些碰撞所产生的热量以及该行星日渐增强的重力能量所产生的热量致使整个这颗行星甚至其表面发生溶化。任何所存在的水份将会蒸发,消失至太空中。但是, 随着该行星逐渐达到目前的规模大小,它的重力开始变得足够的强劲,将气体和水蒸气保持在其周围作为一大气层。由于彗星很大程度上是一些由凝固的水和气体构成的冰,故那时撞击地球的一颗彗星很有可能发生蒸发。随之而形成的水蒸气很有可能被留在大气层中,最终作为雨水降落在早就冷却和固化的地球表面。因此,地球海洋中的水肯定源自彗星。”



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